Leave a Comment

This one is fresh from the podcast oven. Do we make podcasts in the oven? Podcast skillet maybe? Podcast skillet.

Special thanks to Bill Baer, of Crashburn Alley fame and author of 100 Things Phillies Fans Should Know and Do Before They Die, who joins us to preview the 2012 Phillies and makes us very sad to be Mets fans. The iTunes link is here, if you’d like to subscribe, rate, or download. This is a long one, so there’s a rundown after the jump:

2:00 – Rapid responses to many, many Twitter questions, including R.A. Dickey as a candy bar, the next Met traded, and the 2014 infield. And much more.
37:00 – Bill Baer from Crashburn Alley – NL East Preview Part 2: Why are the Phillies so good?
1:07:00 – The Most Valuable Met in 2014 Will Be
1:28:00 – Obligatory Bacon Discussion
1:36:00 – Ted proposes a revolutionary new sandwich
1:41:00 – Superbowl predictions

Leave a Comment

Want some hope for the Mets? Some things I’ve learned clicking around Baseball-Reference’s Play Index:

1. Since 1901, there have been 213 major league baseball players to receive 500 plate appearances before their age 22 season. Ruben Tejada is one of those 213 players. So you can probably guess where this is going.

2. Of those 213 players, 116 were All-Stars at some point in their career, or 54%. Since we’re counting from 1901, and the first All-Star game took place in 1933, the percentage of All-Star caliber players is probably even higher than 54% — for example, between 1951 and 2001, when there was an All-Star game every year, 72% of the players receiving 500 plate appearances before their age 22 season ultimately made an All-Star team during their career. So over that fifty year stretch, seven of every ten players who became major league regulars at a young age also became All-Stars.

3. Also of those 213 players, 48 are in the Hall of Fame. That’s 23%.

4. The percentages for players who go on to become All-Stars and Hall of Famers remain similar if you narrow it down to just middle infielders. The percentages do drop slightly if you eliminate great young players, and only look at those “bad” players with three or fewer career Wins Above Replacement by age 21. But still, 58% of the “bad” young players who debuted between 1951 and 2001 ultimately became All-Stars. Even if a player fails to impress in the majors at a young age, he has a better than 50% chance at becoming an All-Star at some point in his career.

So just playing the percentages, if all you know about a player is that he has 500 major league plate appearances and is 21-years-old, you can estimate that he has a two-thirds shot at becoming an All-Star, and a one-in-four shot at going to the Hall of Fame. If a player is talented enough to play in the majors at a young age, he has a good chance of growing into a star.

We do know a little bit more than that about Ruben Tejada, of course. He has held his own, though perhaps not impressed during his time in the big leagues. But even adding in that information, there’s a better than half chance Tejada makes an All-Star team during his career, and a 10% shot he’s a Hall of Famer.

What about bust rate? As far as I know, there isn’t a great way to search the bust rate on these guys using Baseball-Reference. But I can make a list of players from the last 20 years to have 500 big league plate appearances by age 21:

What’s the bust rate over the last 20 years? Three, four, five guys out of 27? And even a handful of the “bad” players, like Melky Cabrera and Jose Guillen, have been productive major league regulars at points in their career. By my count, only Luis Rivas, Wil Cordero, Mike Caruso and Rocco Baldelli busted and failed to become useful regulars (and Baldelli failed because of illness).

Of course, Rivas, Cordero and Caruso are also middle infielders. So if you’re looking to temper your optimism, temper it on that anvil of failed young infielders.

But putting it all together and comparing Tejada to other players who became regulars at a young age, let’s say conservatively there is:

• A 5% chance Tejada busts
• A 10% chance he’s a career bench player
• A 35% he’s a useful regular
• A 45% chance he’s an All-Star
• A 5% chance he’s a Hall of Famer

This is, of course, ignoring all other objective and subjective information about Ruben Tejada. So it’s kind of a silly exercise. But this was really my attempt to explain my (over)enthusiasm for Ruben Tejada in statistical form: Young players who hold their own in the major leagues, even the unimpressive ones, tend to develop into solid everyday players, All Stars, and occasionally Hall of Famers. Ruben Tejada played 174 major league games before his 22nd birthday, and that on its own is an excellent sign for his future.

Leave a Comment

So this post presents an idea for an on-going feature during the 2012 season: The 2014 Mets’ power rankings, a list of the most important players to the 2014 Mets. Not that we’re giving up on 2012 already, but . . . well, you know. The Mets certainly appear to be rebuilding biding their time this season. So let’s concentrate on the future by keeping track of the present. Thus, the 2014 power rankings, a weekly or every-other-weekly feature where we track the rising and falling stock of the 2014 Mets in the 2012 season.

For a player to be eligible for the 2014 Mets power rankings, he must be:

• In the Mets’ organization
• Under team control through at least 2014
• . . . and that’s it

These rules mean that both major and minor league players are eligible for the rankings. For example: Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada are eligible, as are Jeurys Familia and Matt Harvey; David Wright is not eligible, as his contract expires after 2013.

Which actually brings up the next point: These rankings are the 2014 power rankings, and not the 2012 or 2013 power rankings, because 2014 is when the Mets should solely be a team of Sandy Alderson’s design. As of today, they have no players under contract for 2014, and the team’s only payroll commitments are $8.5 million dollars in buyouts for Johan Santana and Jason Bay. That makes 2014 the target date in which we’re interested. If a player is on the 2014 Mets, it’s because Alderson wants him there.

Now, I have an idea for how the preliminary rankings should look, but I’m going to throw the vote out to the crowd first. There’s a poll at the bottom of this post, with the names of the 28 players. I’ve put the names in alphabetical order in an attempt to avoid swaying anyone’s votes, then added my own comments about the players in an attempt to sway your votes. But let’s see what y’all think: Read through, or don’t read through, and then vote for the five players you think will the most important for the 2014 Mets at the bottom. And please remember that pitchers get hurt:

Ike Davis, 1B – Since Davis fought out of a rookie slump near the end of 2010, he’s done nothing but destroy baseballs and have his ankle circulation restricted by a walking boot. He finished his rookie season strong, hitting .330/.427/.524 in September 2010, and followed it by hitting .302/.383/.543 in April and May last year. Then Davis suffered an injury when he bumped into his third basemen – who had a broken back and shouldn’t have playing – as they both went for an infield pop up. Davis suffered several false starts in his recovery and missed the rest of the year. It’s a testament to how numb Mets fans have become that no one seems to think that this story – budding first baseman is injured during what looked like an aggressive hug, and misses the season when his recovery is (possibly) botched by team doctors — is particularly weird.

If Davis is healthy and comes anywhere close to replicating his performance since September 2010, he’ll be the best first baseman in the division and, with Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder in the American League now, he’s actually a good bet make the NL All Star team.

The Mets control Davis through 2016.

Lucas Duda, 1B/OF – He can hit, but Duda’s defense is going to be a problem in 2012. Duda has played 556 innings in the outfield during his major league career – three-fifths of those innings in right, the rest in left — and has so far cost the Mets:

- 15 runs according to Ultimate Zone Rating
- 6 runs according to Defensive Runs Saved
- 11 runs by Total Zone.

Average those numbers together, and Duda could end up costing the Mets 25 runs in right field over a full season. Defensive statistics are iffy, but if Duda is actually that bad, he can’t stay in right field defending like Adam Dunn unless he’s also hitting like Reds-era Adam Dunn.

On the other hand, once Jason Bay is gone, the Mets can shift Duda to left, where his glove might play a bit better.

The Mets control Duda through 2017.

Phillip Evans, SS/2B – The Mets drafted Evans, a 19-year-old shortstop, in the 15th round of June’s amateur draft, but paid him like a first-rounder. He hit .294/.351/.412 in nine games in the lowest minors after signing; John Sickels rated Evans as a C+ prospect in December, and his stock could rise quick.

Jeurys Familia, SP – Familia struck out 132 batters in 124 innings between High-A and Double-A last season, posting a 2.90 ERA along the way. Baseball America lists Familia as the Mets’ #4 prospect, John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus rank him as #3, and MLB.com #90 in all baseball; with almost 90 innings above the A-ball level, Familia could hit the majors this season. Turned 22 in October.

Wilmer Flores, SS/3B – Flores batted .269 as a 19-year-old shortstop in Advanced-A ball, and he was one of just two 19-year-old regulars in the league. This performance would be an incredibly exciting for a 19-year-old shortstop – imagine if Phillip Evans started next season in Advanced-A and hit .270 — except that no one seems to think that the 6’3” Flores can stay at shortstop. And if Flores is destined to move from shortstop, he needs to start hitting for more power. Still, he only turned 20 in August, and Baseball America ranks Flores as the Mets #10 prospect, while Sickels has him at #9.

Michael Fulmer, SP – The Mets’ other first round pick in 2011, Fulmer is an 18-year-old, 6’3” righthanded pitcher from Oklahoma. He pitched 5.1 innings for the departed Gulf Coast Mets last season in his professional debut and struck out 10 batters. Baseball America has Fulmer ranked as the Mets’ #9 prospect, and Sickels has him at #11.

Dillon Gee, SP – We’re optimistic about Gee around these parts. He was, at times, alarming wild last season – Gee quietly finished second in the National League in hit batsmen, tenth in walks, and threw six wild pitches – but the showing was out of character for someone who thrived as a soft-tosser in the minors. Gee’s walk rate doubled from two walks per nine innings in the minors to four walks per nine innings in the majors, and I think it’s reasonable to expect him to regain some control as he adjusts to the majors. Or at least it’s reasonable to hope that might happen, right?

The Mets control Gee through 2016.

Darrin Gorski, SP – Gorski, a 6’4” lefty, had a blah year in Low-A in 2009, a blah year in Single-A in 2010, and then randomly struck out 140 batters in 138.2 innings and posted a 2.08 ERA in High-A last season. Doesn’t quite pass the smell test yet, but if he repeats his success in the upper levels, Gorski will jump into the Familia-Mejia-Harvey-Wheeler mix.

Matt Harvey, SP – The Mets’ top prospect according to John Sickels and Baseball Prospectus, their second best prospect according to Baseball America, and the #38 prospect in baseball according to MLB’s Jonathan Mayo. Harvey posted 156 strikeouts in 135.2 innings across High-A and Double-A last season and gave up just nine home runs along the way. Like Jeurys Familia, Harvey has a shot at hitting the majors sometime this year.

Reese Havens, 2B – Havens, who spent last season in Double-A, has hit (.829 OPS) when healthy, but he was limited to 32 games in 2010 and 61 games last season because of various maladies. A high batting average on balls in play hides the fact he strikes out a ton, but he might have already become the Mets’ starting second baseman if not for the injuries.

Juan Lagares, OF – Outfielder, 22-years-old, hit .349 between High-A and Double-A last season after flirting with .260 for four seasons in the low minors. He has to keep hitting to prove last season was a breakout year and not a fluke, though Baseball Prospectus has Lagares as the Mets’ #5 prospect.

Cory Mazzoni, SP – The Mets’ second round pick in 2011, taken out of North Carolina State. He’s a 6’1” righty, struck out 18 guys in 13 innings in the low minors last season, and, according to NC State’s athletic department website, Mazzoni majored in parks, recreation and tourism management. John Sickels has Mazzoni as the Mets’ #10 prospect heading into this year.

Colin McHugh, SP – McHugh has posted impressive minor league statistics for his career – 3.48 ERA, 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and just 18 home runs allowed in 377 innings. In prospect land, impressive statistics without hype usually means that scouts don’t love him. McHugh is 24 and finished last season in Double-A, so if he’s indeed destined for the majors, I suppose he’s as close as Familia and Harvey.

Jennry Mejia, SP –

Daniel Murphy, IF – If Murphy keeps to his career norms in 2012, he should hit .292/.343/.441 with 10 home runs, 39 doubles, and suffer eight season-ending knee injuries.

The Mets control Murphy through 2015.

Jon Niese, SP – This season is big for Niese. Either everything clicks, the hits stop falling, and Niese is better than Gio Gonzalez. Or that doesn’t happen and he stays on his present Glendon Rusch track:

Those pitchers are the ten with the highest BABIP-against over the last 50 years, with a minimum of 300 major league innings. At some point, it’s not just bad luck anymore. I don’t know if Niese is at that point yet, but he’s getting close.

The Mets control Niese through 2015.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF – Nieuwenhuis, 24, hit .298/.403/.505 as a center fielder in a half-season at Triple-A before injuring his shoulder last season. If it’s going to happen, his time is now. Save us from Jason Bay, Captain Kirk.

Brandon Nimmo, OF – The Mets’ top pick in the 2011 draft, Nimmo won’t even turn 19 until March . . . STICK HIM IN BUFFALO TO START NEXT YEAR, SEE HOW HE HANDLES ABJECT FAILURE . . . whoa, sorry. Internal Tony Bernazard came out for a second. Really, though, Nimmo is just 18 — 18! Let’s all forget about him and then check in again in two or three years.

Bobby Parnell, RP – Only reliever among the 25 listed here, but at least two or three of the starting pitching prospects are doomed to join him in relief work, along with a handful of unlisted fringe prospects who move to the bullpen and thrive. Even with too many hits and walks, Parnell should stumble into a few dominant seasons, a la Kyle Farnsworth.

The Mets control Parnell through 2015.

Cesar Puello, OF – I haven’t seen him play, but I assume Puello either stands right over the plate or is a unlikable dude, because he gets hit by an absurd number of pitches: He’s been drilled 62 times in his minor league career already. If Puello had been hit by those pitches in the majors, he would trail only Chase Utley and Carlos Quentin for the most HBP in major league baseball since 2008 — and Puello has about 150-200 fewer games played over that span than those two.

Other than his proficiency at stopping pitched baseballs with his body, Puello has posted uninspiring statistics so far, a career .282/.349/.384 minor league hitter. Still, he’s ranked as the Mets’ #5 prospect by both Baseball America and John Sickels, so it’s safe to assume Puello is impressing scouts.

Josh Satin, IF – He keeps hitting and make improvements. But he’s also 27 already and looks like a long-shot to make the Mets’ Opening Day roster this season, nonetheless the 2014 roster.

Chris Schwinden, SP – He’s really only on this list as a potential spot starter/long reliever riding the Buffalo express. He’s made it to the majors though, and half the other pitchers on this list will probably stall out long before then.

Ruben Tejada, SS – Since 1961, middle infielders to have career .330 or better on-base percentages as 21-year-olds:

Delino DeShields, Joe Morgan, Alex Rodriguez, Jerry Browne, Lou Whitaker, Starlin Castro, Willie Randolph, Edgar Renteria, Rod Carew, Ruben Tejada, Roberto Alomar, Elvis Andrus, Sonny Jackson, Mike Caruso, Alan Trammell, Garry Templeton, Jim Fregosi.

The minimum is 500 plate appearances; that’s not bad company for Tejada. Don’t bet against players who can handle the majors as a 21-year-old.

The Mets control Tejada through 2016.

Josh Thole, C – He gets on base, hits left-handed, and can sit behind the plate well enough. Even if Thole is a final product, he’s got enough to carve out a career as one side of a catching platoon, and with a few more improvements, he can be an average full-time catcher.  Thole should be a big part of the Mets for a while, if only because there aren’t any other catchers on this list.

The Mets control Thole through 2016.

Justin Turner, IF – Another possible second baseman, but more likely a bench piece for a year or two.

The Mets control Turner through 2016.

Jordany Valdespin, 2B/SS – The upside is that Valdespin just hit .294 with 17 home runs and 32 doubles in Binghamton and Buffalo last season. The downside is that Valdespin is 24, doesn’t walk, probably makes too many errors to be a major league shortstop, and is noted for attitude issues. He’ll be in Buffalo this season and has an outside shot at playing some second base for the big league club, because everyone has an outside shot at playing second base for the Mets.

Cory Vaughn, OF – Vaughn impressed in short-season ball last summer before running into struggles in St. Lucie this season, hitting .219/.308/.395 after a mid-season promotion to High-A. Some of his slump looks to be injury-related, and some batting-average-on-balls-in-play related. He’s flashed power and a solid outfield arm, recording 11 outfield assists last season. He’s also the son of Greg Vaughn, and I like to bet on the sons of former players.

Zack Wheeler, SP – Baseball America ranks Wheeler as the Mets’ top prospect, Baseball-Prospectus and John Sickels rank him second, and MLB.com ranked him as the 28th best prospect in baseball. Wheeler was dominant in six starts with St. Lucie after being acquired by the Mets, striking out 31, walking five and allowing no home runs. Probably starts this season in Double-A Binghamton, hopefully ends it in Buffalo. Well, actually, that’s not true. I guess hopefully, Wheeler starts the season in Queens, wins Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young, restarts the space shuttle program, cures some diseases, plays point guard for the Knicks on his rest days, and ends the year recording the final out of the World Series in a Mets victory. But being hopeful and realistic, 80 solid innings in Double-A followed by 60 in Buffalo would be cool.

That’s everyone. Vote away, pick up to five:

Leave a Comment

Quick link while I work on other things: Matthew Callan over at Amazin’ Avenue has put together a collection of Mets promos from yester-year, including the above. Serious question: Why are things from the ’80s so much funnier — unintentionally — than things from any other decade?

Leave a Comment

Newest Mostly Mets Podcast, featuring Craig Calcaterra of NBC’s Hardball Talk (where I get most of my general baseball news). Craig talks about the Braves, while Ted, Toby and I talk about the other teams in the NL East and the Mets’ probably-poor-pitching. Also, what the Mets bullpen might look like as a basketball team.

iTunes link is here for downloading and subscribing, if you’d like. Contact us with feedback and questions for the show via voicemail at 347-915-METS, or electronic mail at MostlyMetsPodcast at gmail.

Leave a Comment

We’re in the absolute dead season for Mets baseball, so how about some Giants and Knicks reading to hold you over?

This first piece is a retro-link I saw today, via Will Leitch over at New York Magazine‘s The Sports Section. By the way, if you’re a fan of New York sports but not RSS-subscribed to NY Mag’s sports section, I heartily recommend you do so. Anyway here’s this seven-year-old piece from the New York Times:

The droop of his shoulders, the hangdog look, the soft and gentle face, the tendency to greet every question with a blank expression and a high-pitched note of uncertainty (”Ummmmm”) — everything about Eli Manning’s outward appearance suggests indecision and youth. ”If I was a cop and I saw him out driving a car, I’d pull him over,” says Shaun O’Hara, the Giants regular center. His picture has for months graced billboards around New York City, but Eli has been able to walk the length of the fancy part of Fifth Avenue with his mother — untucked red alligator shirt, unpressed chinos and sneakers without socks — without once being recognized. By nature he is very private, but what he’s withholding from the public is unclear. ”I’m Eli’s oldest friend,” James Montgomery says, ”and I don’t think I’ve ever had a serious conversation with him. The last time he called we spent 15 minutes trying to figure out the last song in ‘Teen Wolf.’ ”

- Michael Lewis, “The Eli Experiment”
The New York Times Magazine

I find it interesting that Mannings’s qualities, which in this piece from 2004 make him seem a disinterested and goofy kid, have now come to represent his unshakable cool under pressure. Reading this piece now, it doesn’t seem as if Manning has changed his personality. He’s basically the same aw-shucks, practical joker he’s always been — check out this piece from the Wall Street Journal from October for more on Manning’s jokes. The only thing that’s changed is our reaction to Manning’s personality. What was once interpreted as immaturity and all-encompassing awkwardness is now interpreted as the steady guiding hand of a team’s captain.

I don’t know. I guess it’s easy to make judgments based on Mike Pelfrey a player’s personality, and harder to let his or her play just speak for itself.

Speaking of which:

Anthony, even at his worst, plays like someone who has spent hours rehearsing possible outcomes. He makes his move, runs through his script, and then assumes his expertise will bail him out. Kobe Bryant plunges into the unknown and wants defenders dragged there with him. Melo knows the right thing to do, or at least believes he does. He may make mistakes, but Anthony rarely takes risks. Or at least he wouldn’t see it that way.

- Bethlehem Shoals, “Carmelo Anthony Is Right Even When He’s Wrong”
GQ’s “The Q” blog

The Q is another blog I recommend adding to your RSS feed-reader, a wonderful source of sports writing over on GQ’s website, hidden among the slideshows of gaunt, hairless men wearing loafers without socks. It seems to me that the Knicks’ offensive problems have had a lot to do with their guards missing open shots and Amar’e Stoudemire barreling blindly into opposing bigs, and less to do with Carmelo Anthony, who is currently posting a career-high assist percentage and clearly playing hurt. The Knicks are an impatiently constructed science project, like the 2008-10 Mets, and their fans are blaming the stars, like the fans of the 2008-10 Mets. But they’ll be fine.

If not, blame Beltran.

Leave a Comment

Choo Choo Coleman edition:

In recent years, he has been living in Bamberg, S.C., essentially invisible. Lou Cafiero, a collector in New York, began tracing the Clarence Colemans of America, and last year he made contact. With the 50th anniversary in mind, Cafiero began reaching out to memorabilia shows.

Last week, Coleman flew into New York — his first plane ride in 35 years.

“They used to shake more,” he said, recalling the DC-6B propeller planes the Mets used to charter. When he checked into a hotel, he had never seen a magnetic room card.

As gentle and decent as ever, Coleman seemed bemused as Mets fans greeted him as an icon returned to life.

“You play for a team, you always root for them,” he said.

- George Vecsey, “The Legend of Choo Choo, 50 Years Later”
The New York Times

In honor those early Mets, here is the worst Mets player to be an everyday player, position by position, according to Baseball-Reference’s version of Wins Above Replacement:

C – Brian Schneider — .244/.323/.356, 12 HR, 62 RBI
1B – Willie Montanez — .247/.303/.362, 22 HR, 143 RBI
2B – Doug Flynn — .234/.264/.292, 5 HR, 155 RBI
SS – Frank Taveras — .263/.297/.324, 1 HR, 69 RBI
3B – Ty Wigginton — .270/.327/.440, 29 HR, 131 RBI
LF – Benny Agbayani — .282/.372/.461, 35 HR, 129 RBI
CF – Brian McRae — .249/.342/.421, 34 HR, 130 RBI
RF – Jeff Francoeur — .268/.311/.423, 21 HR, 95 RBI

I’m not sure I agree with this list. It skews heavily towards players who did not rate well by defensive metrics (particularly Wigginton, and to a lesser extent the entire outfield). It’s also worth noting that a couple of players — like Brian Schneider and Benny Agbayani, who both rate above replacement level during their time with the Mets — aren’t necessarily bad players, just ones with relatively low scores in the WAR department as compared with other historic Mets. If I’ve learned anything from this exercise, it’s that the Mets have used an enormous number of poor players at second base and shortstop. Both the middle infielders are easily the worst players here.

Doug Flynn, by the way, has an insurmountable lead in the Mets career negative wins above replacement department. He’s at -6.3 wins, with the next position player clocking in at -2.8.

Leave a Comment

So says Jerry Crasnick of ESPN:

I figured the Mets might be out on Ross after re-signing Scott Hairston, as both are lefty-mashers who can spot start in center field — this would seem to be a move from the department of redundancy department — but perhaps not. Ross is a better fielder than Hairston, allowing him to better backup center field, where the Mets are shallow. And if Hairston is forced to shift into playing everyday to replace Jason Bay’s lifeless husk, the Mets bench would suddenly have a serious lack of bats. With Ross, Terry Collins could play Duda-Torres-Ross left to right in the outfield, with Hairston still serving as a backup and spot-starting in left against tough lefties. Ross shares skills with Hairston, but having both could be a good thing for the Mets’ bench.

I’d approve this move. I’ve been half-pushing for Cody Ross since October, when I predicted he would sign with the Mets. Ross is a career .282/.349/.563 hitter with 46 home runs in 684 at-bats against lefthanded pitchers — as I’ve said before, Ross is basically Jose Bautista against lefties, only if Jose Bautista didn’t walk and looked like baby with 5 o’clock shadow.

Leave a Comment

The above is a lie. I read the following yesterday, and there’s just one thing. So here is some thing I read yesterday, that I wanted to pass along:

If you visit FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference during the baseball season, it’s tough to avoid exposure to defensive statistics like UZR, DRS or TZ. They feature prominently on individual player pages and leaderboards. Their existence is mostly beneficial, especially in the long term. A look at the all-time TZ leaderboards at various positions jibes with historical reputations. These stats don’t appear to be total bunk and information is a good thing. However, I fear — and maybe I’m wrong — that following the ups and downs of UZR, etc. during the season serves to bias perception of players’ defensive performance. So this year I will do my best to avoid looking at defensive stats until the season ends, trusting my eyes first to judge defense.

- James Kannengieser, “A UZR-less 2012″
Amazin’ Avenue

I love this idea and plan on trying it myself. I believe looking at defensive numbers does mess with my subjective judgments about fielders. The Mostly Mets Podcast just discussed David Wright’s fielding this week, and I mentioned on the show that Wright doesn’t look like a great defensive third baseman anymore. The numbers back that assertion up, putting Wright as the worst everyday fielder at third base in the major leagues. It’s hard to make a case that Wright is still a solid defensive player.

On the other hand, my opinion is colored by already knowing the numbers. Because I know David Wright’s poor defensive marks, I look for examples of him being a poor fielder during games. When Wright does make a misplay, it only serves to confirm what I had already decided to be true, and when he makes a good play, I write it off as an exception to the rule. Confirmation bias. I can’t trust my own judgement anymore.

So I like this idea. I’m hoping that by avoiding Ultimate Zone Rating, Defensive Runs Saved, and Total Zone numbers this season, I’ll be able to come up with my own evaluation, as Mr. Kannengieser plans on doing.

Leave a Comment