Anyone who thinks Parnell should be closer does not know that player. Mets people still think he gets shaky in big spots (more)

— Andy Martino (@SurfingTheMets) May 17, 2012

For example, he has stumbled while fielding a few bunts in tight spots lately.Team brass thinks he gets tight in big moments.

— Andy Martino (@SurfingTheMets) May 17, 2012

I was going to look up some statistics in order to refute the opinion of Mets people*, as reported by Andy Martino above. But then I did  look up Parnell’s splits in high, medium, and low leverage situations — that is, his splits depending on how important the situation is — and Mets people may have a point:

*Mets people = Mr. Met and family?

Parnell’s .425 BABIP in high leverage spots should set up little sabermetric warning lights and beanie propellers, but Parnell’s struggles in big spots are not driven just by his poor batting average against on balls in play. Scoot over to Fangraphs, and Parnell’s FIP (3.03 in low, 3.61 in medium, and 4.24 in high) and xFIP backup an ERA that grows proportional to the importance of the spot.

So, yeah, Mets people are correct. Bobby Parnell has pitched poorly in high leverage situations thus far in his career. The real question is whether or not that’s likely to continue, or if it’s just a fluky thing that happened and now saddles Parnell with an undeserved reputation.

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Murphy carried a personal-best 11-game hitting streak into the Mets’ series opener against Cincinnati on Tuesday night at Citi Field. From 11 a.m.-1 p.m. ET, he dropped in on the nine Cave Dwellers, did a Facebook chat, surprised fans and taped a video down in the basement with comedian Arsenio Hall, who will either be fired by Donald Trump or will make Clay Aiken a runner-up again when the live finale of NBC’s “Celebrity Apprentice” airs on Sunday night . . .

Hall congratulated Murphy and said he was a fan.

“Three thirty-three (actually .336), even to a comedian, sounds good. That is good, right?” Hall asked.

“It’s a lot better than I thought I was gonna do, so I’ll take it,” Murphy replied.

“You’re a young man, so you’ve got a lot of years of .333 ahead of you.”

- Mets.com

Emphasis mine. Obviously.

Oh, by the way, D.J. Carrasco was just designated for assignment. The Mets called up LHP Robert Carson to take Carrasco’s place in the bullpen. Carson throws hard, has a sweet southern drawl, and Toby Hyde seems to like him.

And yes, putting these two topics into one post was just an excuse to post Carsenio:

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The Brewers blew out the Mets 8-0 on Tuesday. But — outside of those concerned with the Mets’ growing runs scored/runs allowed gap — you know, who cares about the game itself. The most interesting moment of the night was the spirited discussion betwixt Terry Collins and David Wright in the Mets’ dugout during the seventh inning.

Here’s the setup if you missed it: In the top half of the seventh, D.J. Carrasco was ejected by home plate umpire (and SNY announcer portnameteau) Gary Darling for plunking Ryan Braun with the first pitch immediately following a home run. The plunking appeared unintentional, for it would have been the most accurate pitch Carrasco has ever thrown in a Mets uniform. Regardless, Collins feared the Brewers might retaliate with similarly errant pitches. He removed his best hitters, Wright and Daniel Murphy, for their protection. Wright was visually displeased, caught on camera speaking emphatically with Collins and reportedly demanding to stay in the game. Collins said “no,” Wright said “what,” Collins said “You can do what you want Dave, but the next time you see me coming you better run.” Jordany Valdespin pinch hit for Wright. The third baseman appeared to speak calmly with Collins later in the same inning, so I assume things are cool now.

Breaking down reactions of the various parties:

1. I liked David Wright’s reaction. He didn’t want anyone else taking a pitch for him, and he made sure his teammates knew as much. Nevermind the baseball side of things — as a human being, that’s pretty cool. If someone you admire refuses to let you to take a punishment intended for him or her, that means something. Leadership is a buzzword now beaten into meaninglessness by politicians, and job and college applications. But I think Wright’s reaction is what leadership is supposed to be. Wright unofficially captains the third-youngest team in the National League. That sort of stuff matters coming from him.

Also he’s hitting .400.

I suppose yelling at your manager on camera may not be the best example for the Padawans, but in this case — Wright showing his teammates he’ll literally fight to take a pitch for any one of them — it can be excused as a necessary display.

Oh, also, Wright is hitting .400.

2. I also liked Terry Collins’ reaction. Wright and Murphy have been the Mets’ best hitters in 2012. (I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence.) Wright is playing with a broken pinkie, and he’s (maybe) just now recovered from being beaned by Matt Cain in 2009. The Mets can’t afford to lose either one to an errant pitch. Collins’ job is to protect his players from opposing pitchers, umpires, and even the player himself. Collins did his job in this case.

3. D.J. Carrasco is the goat here. He had one job last night: soak up innings in a blowout. The only way Carrasco could fail — the only way! — was to get himself ejected. The only way he could get himself ejected was to give up a home run and then plunk the next batter with a first pitch fastball. I guess he could have flipped off the umpire or something. Whatever. Carrasco did the one thing he couldn’t do, and made things even worse by hitting the opposing team’s best player. He gets a double F* for this one.

*A Double F = a Frank Francisco. Like an F-minus, but worse.

4. Collins kinda sorta totally threw Carrasco under the bus during the postgame presser. I’m not sure the long reliever is long for this team. You know how the Knicks originally hired Mike Woodson as a “defensive coordinator” of sorts? The Mets should get a “bullpen coordinator” for Sandy Alderson.

5. The Brewers did not plunk any Mets in retaliation. It seemed Carrasco’s pitch was without intent, and the Brewers may have seen it as such. All may have been for naught. We’ll see how it goes when the Mets meet the Brew Crew again in  . . . looks at calender . . . oh, September. That’s a long way off. We’ll probably all have forgotten by then.

6. If any game demanded a pitching appearance by Mike Baxter, this was the game.

The final grades: David Wright get an A+ because he’s hitting .400. Terry Collins is downgraded to a B for refusing to pitch Mike Baxter. D.J. Carrasco has probably flunked out.

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Two links to pass along from “The Mets bullpen is awful” day on the internet:

1. Ted Berg responded to an email from reader-and-presumed-person Brian, asking Ted about the team-wide effects of Frank Francisco’s blown saves.

2. Toby Hyde wrote a lengthy post  about the Mets’ options (or lack of such) for fixing the bullpen. Not to give away the ending, but he concludes that the best course of action may be holding steady and waiting for the good pitchers to pitch well. Also there’s a picture of Frank Francisco rocking a sweet business suit.

I’m looking forward to “Miguel Batista is awesome?” day on the internet tomorrow. Hugs and kisses everyone.

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Frank Francisco disappointed in a pair of save chances over the weekend, and the Marlins defeated the Mets in both games. Francisco’s ERA is 8.56,  though his strikeout rate is fine, his walk and home run rates are up only slightly, as is his FIP. All things considered — or, because this is the internet, very few things considered — whom would you want pitching in the ninth inning if tonight’s Mets game is close? The only options are relievers on the Mets’ current roster, because you’d all vote for R.A. Dickey if I put him as an option.

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The short answer is that I have no idea. But here’s a little bit about the difference between their runs scored and runs allowed this season.

The Mets have won an inordinate number of close games this season: They’re 11-3 in one-or-two run games. They have not fared as well in blowouts, 0-5 in games decided by six or more runs.

Because the Mets have won so many close games and lost a number of blowouts, they have been outscored by 18 runs. Over the course of a full season, it’s difficult for a team to have a winning record and allow more runs than they score. In the last five seasons, only six teams – the 2011 Giants, the 2009 Tigers and Mariners, the 2008 Astros, and the 2007 Diamondbacks and Mariners – were able to do just that, and only the Diamondbacks topped 88 games and made the postseason. Basically, good teams tend to blow out bad teams, the reverse rarely happens, and close games go either way. So if this Mets team isn’t blowing anyone out . . .

Think of it like the Knicks-Heat games over the last two seasons: Miami has taken nine of the 12 meetings, and the Heat have won by margins of eight, eight, ten, ten, 12, 14, 17, 22, and 33 points. Meanwhile, the Knick’s three victories against the Heat came by two, five, and five points. Maybe you could argue the Knicks are better at winning close games. But would anyone argue that the Knicks are better than the Heat? When everything clicks for Miami, they win a blowout. When everything clicks for New York, they win by five in the last minute.

The scoring in the Mets’ season has followed a similar pattern. They win the close ones (of their 18 wins, 14 have come by one, two, or three runs) and lose the blowouts (of their 13 losses, nine have come by four or more runs). That type of scoring pattern tends to be unsustainable, because teams that only win close games and then lose blowouts tend to prove less talented than their opponents in the long run. If the Mets are outscored by 18 runs over their next 31 games, they probably won’t go 18-13 again.

On the other hand, it’s only 31 games, so small sample size warnings still apply. We’re at the point in the season where you can find the numbers to support any argument regarding a team or a player or whatever. The Mets are both good and not good, so you’ll just have to poison a cat in a box to find out which.

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Our latest. ITunes link, as always, can be found here. If you have questions for the show, email us at MostlyMetsPodcast at gmail, leave a voicemail at 347-915-METS, or shout out the nearest open window and hope one of us is near.

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Chipper fiddles with his buttons. He tells stories about setting up pitchers, about the time he was facing vintage Pedro Martinez when Pedro was with Montreal, took a terrible swing on a changeup early in the game to give him more confidence in his change (as if he needed it), then sat dead changeup on a 3-2 count later on, got one, and launched a grand slam.

Over on Grantland, Jonah Keri writes about some old guy on the Braves. Imagine being so good at hitting that you could set up the game’s greatest pitcher.

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(Sorry.)

I’ve been pushing for the Mets to shift their fielders since the end of last season, and now it appears the baseball mainstream has discovered the benefits of fielders standing in different places for different batters. Albert Chen covered the emerging trend of aggressive infield shifts in last week’s Sports Illustrated, and Hunter Atkins wrote about the Rays in this morning’s New York Times.

So that shifty cat is out of its bag. I’m going to guess that, in the next two or three years, every team will be shifting their infielders to some degree. And because every team will be shifting, the relative advantage of doing so will disappear. Baseball teams don’t cop strategies as quickly as, say, football teams do — remember how quickly the wildcat offense came and went, compared with the latency period for the appreciation of on-base percentage — but some baseball trends do stick and spread. It seems we’re witnessing the rise of aggressive shifts this baseball season. Just something to keep an eye on as the Mets play different teams this season.

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Notes on Mets-Diamondbacks:

– Big picture stuff: The Mets took two of three from the Diamondbacks, losing 4-5 on Friday before winning 4-3 on Saturday and 3-1 on Sunday. Not many runs, though it looked at times more a case of poor hitting, as opposed to good pitching. Other collective stuff: The Mets outscored the Snakes, 11-9, across the three games and outhit them 24-22. Arizona’s pitchers did out FIP New York’s, with 16 strikeouts, eight walks, and no home runs allowed, compared to 21 strikeouts, 11 walks, and two home runs allowed for the Mets.

– We’ll go with some good stuff first: The Mets’ starting pitching won the series. Dillon Gee, Johan Santana, and R.A. Dickey combined for 21 innings and six runs allowed, each notching a quality start. The bullpen went two-for-three. Bobby Parnell, the Mets’ best reliever this season, made a pair of scoreless appearances on Friday and Saturday, while Frank Francisco added two notches to his growing save belt. The lone blemish was the screeching halt of Jon Rauch’s traveling contact-fest on Friday night. Rauch came into the game with two men on and one out in the eighth and surrendered the lead, allowing three runs to score in the inning.

– How about Dillon Gee? His control has improved, his walks are down and his strikeouts are up, and he’s been particularly fun to watch work out of trouble this year. He seems a little bit like Santana, but only in that when things start going south, Gee appears to grow angry and starts striking people out through great effort and will. Gee walked two hitters to begin the sixth inning on Friday, and after a visit from Dan Warthen, went into Gee-smash mode. Paul Goldschmidt lined out to short on one pitch, and then Gee struck out Cody Ransom and Aaron Hill back to back to end the inning. Gee worked the outside corner with cutters and changeups and then came up and in with his fastball, before going back to the changeup away. He struck his way out of a similar, final inning jam against Atlanta earlier this season as well.

Gee’s ERA doesn’t reflect any improvement over last season, thanks to a seven run outing against San Francisco, but Gee’s peripheral stats do reflect as much. His 3.11 xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA-estimator based on strikeouts, walks, and fly ball rate) is over a run better than last season’s 4.46 xFIP, and Gee’s xFIP leads the Mets’ starters. Mandatory SSS warning: It’s only 32 innings. But 32 good innings are better than 32 bad innings.

– The same point goes for the ERAs of Santana and Dickey, ERAs also inflated from a single bad outing each. Actually, the same goes for Jon Niese and his ERA as well. The Mets’ starting pitching has been a strength this season, outside of that one week when they all got together and decided to have bad starts and lower expectations.

– That is, the rotation has been a strength except for the musical chairs fifth spot. Miguel Batista, you’re up next.

– Johan Santana didn’t have his best stuff on Saturday, but pitched well anyway. I feel as though that’s been a storyline repeated over and over about Santana’s Mets career. Every start it’s that “he didn’t have his best stuff,” or “he didn’t get the run support.” It never seems to be all clicking for Santana, and then at the end of the season, he is somehow 15-9 with a 2.95 ERA.

– R.A. Dickey threw a whole bunch of knuckleballs. His opposition took funny swings and didn’t hit well. I’m just going to copy and paste those two sentences to describe his starts for the rest of the season.

– The pitching was the good stuff, so here’s some bad stuff: The offense scored just 11 runs in three games, and the Diamondbacks threw a pair of inexperienced lefties and a Pelfrey at the Mets. The lack of runs is the problem so far, really. The Mets are getting guys on, ranking third in on-base percentage in the NL, but they’re 10th in slugging percentage and 10th in runs-per-game. They also strike out a lot for a team that’s not hitting for any power. The Mets’ good record in close games is helping to mask the offense’s struggles with plating runners.

– Worst part of the series: Ruben Tejada tore his pants, potentially his quad, and hurt his face, groin, and pride falling face-into-first on Sunday. Tejada was, as you might expect, making a smart baseball play at the time. In his infinite brilliance, Tejada saw AZ third baseman Cody Ransom playing back and deked a bunt on the first pitch. When he saw Ransom stay back still, Tejada then bunted the second pitch into no man’s land on the third base line. Then Tejada tripped near first and hit the ground hard and slid a bit. We’ll know more about his injury later and if the Mets make any roster moves, but best of luck to Tejada.

– Ike Davis had no hits and whiffed at a pitch that hit him in the knee. That says it all, right? He’s really, really lost, hitting-wise. He’s showing up at the park on time though, so at least he’s not lost, GPS-wise.

– Daniel Murphy added seven hits in the series, six singles and a double. Murphy is now hitting .315, but it’s an empty .315: Murphy’s OPS is at .737 because 28 of his 35 hits have been singles, the other seven doubles, and he’s only drawn eight walks. He’s so good at hitting singles now that he’s almost made himself into a bad offensive player because he can only hit singles. I’d take a .280 batting average from Murphy if it meant an accompanying .450 slugging percentage.

– Mets batters did not hit a home run in the series, and have not homered since Josh Thole’s solo shot in Colorado last Sunday. I’m thinking they should play their next home series at Kiddie Field.

– I can’t remember any other hitter having particularly good or particularly bad series, so maybe chalk this series up to the BABIP spirits.

– Oh, if you missed this on Sunday night, Bryce Harper is totally, totally awesome. The setup here is that Hamels beaned Harper to put him on base:

And I say that Harper great, knowing that if he stole home against the Mets, I’d . . . actually, no, stealing home after a pitcher plunks you for no reason other than being yourself is awesome regardless. All the years we watched the Phillies beat up on the Mets, I would have loved to see someone stick it to the Phillies the way Harper did.

– That’s all I’ve got. The Phillies are up next for the Mets. I hope someone steals home.

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