Anyone who thinks Parnell should be closer does not know that player. Mets people still think he gets shaky in big spots (more)

— Andy Martino (@SurfingTheMets) May 17, 2012

For example, he has stumbled while fielding a few bunts in tight spots lately.Team brass thinks he gets tight in big moments.

— Andy Martino (@SurfingTheMets) May 17, 2012

I was going to look up some statistics in order to refute the opinion of Mets people*, as reported by Andy Martino above. But then I did  look up Parnell’s splits in high, medium, and low leverage situations — that is, his splits depending on how important the situation is — and Mets people may have a point:

*Mets people = Mr. Met and family?

Parnell’s .425 BABIP in high leverage spots should set up little sabermetric warning lights and beanie propellers, but Parnell’s struggles in big spots are not driven just by his poor batting average against on balls in play. Scoot over to Fangraphs, and Parnell’s FIP (3.03 in low, 3.61 in medium, and 4.24 in high) and xFIP backup an ERA that grows proportional to the importance of the spot.

So, yeah, Mets people are correct. Bobby Parnell has pitched poorly in high leverage situations thus far in his career. The real question is whether or not that’s likely to continue, or if it’s just a fluky thing that happened and now saddles Parnell with an undeserved reputation.

Well, that was awful. The Astros swept the Mets in three games, beating them every way one baseball team can beat another. They outscored New York 18-7 over the three games. They outhit the Mets 30-22, and out-homered them 5-0. Every Astros home run came with men on base, and Houston scored 12 of their 18 runs on those five home runs. The Astros out FIP’d the Mets too, controlling the strike zone all three games: The Mets struck out 22 times and drew just six walks, while the Astros struck out 15 times and drew 12 walks. The Mets made two errors, the Astros none. The Mets won zero baseball games, the Astros won three. And so on.

Notes on the series after the jump: (more…)

After a brief road trip across the middle of the country, I have returned. I was able to catch part of Tuesday’s game and the second half of Sunday’s game, but missed Wednesday-Saturday’s game. Brief thoughts on things that I missed:

– The big story: Robert Carson is a Ghost Met, having been on the roster without getting into a game. I think we’ll see him again, either at Citi Field or in a supernatural baseball game that takes place in an Iowa corn field.

– The other story: Mike Pelfrey is probably done for the year with a torn UCL. That’s rough news for the Big Pelf and the Mets. His performance quality (4.27 ERA over the past four seasons) is easier replaced than his performance quantity. The Mets will miss his 200 inning durability, particularly with this staff: Johan Santana last topped 200 innings in 2008, while Jon Niese and Dillon Gee never have in their careers. That leaves some combination of Chris Schwinden, Miguel Batista, Chris Young, Jeremy Hefner, Garrett Olson, Orlando Hernandez, and various relievers to eat Pelfrey’s innings and then some. We may discover that the known meh often is better than the unknown bleh.

– Okay, Orlando Hernandez will probably not take any of Pelfrey’s innings. But I can wish. And is that really a more ridiculous suggestion than Chris Young and Miguel Batista?

– Jason Bay is on the DL, too. The 2012 Mets are without a whipping boy for the moment. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Andres Torres are hitting when Bay returns, those three may split playing time between the LF-CF spots.

– Yes, I do know what Ruben Tejada has been up to. His season line is now .310/.366/.405, and Tejada has outplayed all his NL East shortstop counterparts through the season’s first month.

– Ditto for the other hitters atop the Mets’ order: Nieuwenhuis’ line is at .316/.381/.474, while Daniel Murphy’s is at .311/.364/.378.

– Also worth noting: The top of the Mets’ order is now Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Ruben Tejada, and Daniel Murphy. FWIW, Daniel Murphy batting third has finally stopped being funny, but probably only because we’re all used to it now.

– After Sunday’s action, the Mets have been outscored by 19 runs on the year, yet their record stands at 13-9. This is partially because they’re 6-1 in one run games; it’s also partially because they’ve been blown out a handful of times. Generally speaking, teams that win a bunch of close games while losing blowouts are playing over their heads. But that’s speaking generally, which I believe means “speaking like a general.” So re-read this note in a Robert E. Lee voice with Ken Burns piano music tinkling in the background.

– On the flip side, the Mets’ hitting with runners in scoring position has been somewhat stinky, and their bullpen can be described similarly. Batting with RISP tends to even itself out over the course of a 162 game season. I don’t think (read: hope) their bullpen is this terrible.

Okay, that’s all I’ve got about games I didn’t really watch. Analysis!

Once again, that didn’t go all that well. Notes on the Mets-Giants series after the jump: (more…)

Well that didn’t go all that well. Notes on Mets-Braves after the jump (more…)

I’ll be “Blogging Live On Game,” or “BLOG”-ing for short, today’s Mets-Braves game. 12:10 start. Check back in about an hour and refresh for updates as they come: (more…)

Notes from the weekend’s Mets-Braves series. Take the jump: (more…)

Let’s start here: I’m not one for the term “pitchers’ duel” — it’s not as if Johan Santana and Stephen Strasburg took turns yesterday beaning each other with fastballs until one begged for mercy. (Note to self: Possible All Star Game skills competition?) They came face-to-face just four times, pitcher against batting pitcher, ending in three strikeouts and a pop up to left. So it’s not as though the two directly competed as equals. Only indirectly. Santana battled Strasburg’s friends, Strasburg battled Santana’s, and one pitcher’s friends played better. That’s not really a duel in the Hamilton-Burr sense. More like a duel in the dead-’90s-rapper sense, a duel in a loose sense. Maybe we just need a better name for these things: Pitchers’ showcase? Pitchers’ exhibition? Pitcherspolooza? (more…)

The Mets are 3-0 after sweeping the Braves this weekend. I know, I know. And you know, too. But you know what? Let’s just enjoy this. Here are some things that are good right now and other notes:

- The Mets’ revolutionary “only swing at good pitches” racked up pitch counts and limited Atlanta’s starting pitchers to 5, 5, and 4.1 innings in the three games. The Mets got runners on-base (which they did last season) and hit home runs (which they did not). They are not, so far, getting runners on base and then hitting home runs — Duda and Wright’s three bombs were solo shots — but I assume that’s coming at some point. If Wright, Davis and Duda combine for even 60 home runs, the Mets should finish top five in the league in runs scored.

- Bobby Parnell looks reborn. He’s taken his foot off the gas pedal, ditched the 100 MPH four-seamer and slider, and now commands a 93 MPH Greg Maddux two-seamer and a knuckle-curve. Too early to read into the results, but the process looks much improved.

- The bullpen in general looks much improved. The three best relievers from last season (Tim Byrdak, Manny Acosta, and Bobby-Parnell-not-pitching-in-save-situations) now pitch in middle relief, while new guys Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Ramon Ramirez handle the late innings. It’s an interesting setup: Outside of Francisco, Acosta and Parnell are the top strikeout guys, but they’re not tied to a particular inning. Any time the Mets need a strikeout, those two can be called. Meanwhile, the finesse arms of Rauch and Ramirez can start the seventh and eighth innings with clean slates. Terry Collins has a lot of flexibility with this pen.

- The starting pitching gave three strong starts, and the Mets won three games. It seems as though this is pretty much how this Mets’ season is going to go. No pitcher was totally on his game — Santana pitched four strong then survived the fifth, Dickey battled cold weather and poor knuckleball control, and Niese gave his usual, alternating stretches of dominance and inside-the-park pinball — but each gave enough innings for the Mets’ offense and bullpen to take over. The offense should be good-to-great, so the run prevention, particularly from tonight and tomorrow’s starters, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee, probably determines the Mets’ fate this season.

- Speaking of run prevention, one team-wide negative from the weekend: The fielding. Daniel Murphy blew a double play turn, Lucas Duda dropped one fly ball and didn’t cede to his center fielder on another, Jason Bay took a circuitous routes to fly balls over his head, and David Wright made a couple of iffy throws. So the fielding looks as bad as we were expecting. Tejada looks fine as a shortstop, Davis made a handful of nice scoops on Wright’s throws, and Josh Thole had a good series receiving, blocking pitches and chasing down stray knuckleballs (though his real problem is his holding runners). But everywhere else is a question mark right now, especially with Torres out in center field.

- Two more negatives: It seems as though the Braves have Ike Davis figured out, countering his big, busy swing with breaking stuff. I’m curious to see if the Nationals handle Davis the same way, and if this is the way the NL is going to attack Davis until he adjusts. The other negative is Jason Bay, who just looks plain ol’ done. If Kirk Nieuwenhuis can equal Bay’s offensive production, I doubt the rookie is the one on the bench when Andres Torres returns.

- The Braves’ offense, which scored seven runs on 14 hits in three games over the weekend, looks as if its going to struggle this season. Atlanta needs big seasons out of their 22-year-olds, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward, because the team’s three middle-of-the-order hitters are their catcher, an 80-million-year old third baseman made of dust and Cracker Barrel leftovers, and a second baseman who can’t recognize changeups.

- Speaking of negatives around the NL East: On any given day, two of Juan Pierre, Freddy Galvis and Ty Wigginton are starting for the Philadelphia Phillies. On the other hand, on three out of any five given days, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay are on the mound.

- Also, Ozzie Guillen told Time Magazine that he “loves Fidel Castro.” The proverbial “Marlins pitching depth” has since hit the fan.

- The Nationals are shaping up as the anti-Mets: Strong pitching, struggling offense. If the offense scores four runs or more, Washington wins, three runs or fewer and the Nats lose. Bryce Harper has four hits in four Triple-A games so far, playing right field and center. If he’s hitting in Triple-A come end of April/early May and the Nats’ offense is struggling, I think we’re going to see Harper.

- Let’s leave with this: Here’s Lucas Duda’s second home run. Short swing on an inside fastball, and Duda turns the pitch into a line drive into the crowd in the left field corner. I’m thinking the Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard comps are bad, because Duda is never going to strikeout 200 times in a season — between the majors and minors, Duda hasn’t struck out even 130 times in a season. I’ve got a new comparison: This home run, the swing, the landing spot and trajectory, makes me think of a giant Chase Utley:

Meet the Mets: A series of haphazard, preview-type posts focusing on particular Mets, leading up to the 2012 season. Here’s the first one. It’s about Mike Pelfrey. (more…)